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IOC presidential projection: Which IOC members may vote for Thomas Bach?

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Bach: I love Al-Sabah!

illustration: Sebastian Domenech — exclusively for Sport and Politics

It’s gonna be thrilling. One more day to go.

The election of the 9th IOC president will take place on Tuesday, 10 September 2013, 11 a.m. local time in Buenos Aires, Argentina. As opposed to rumors buzzing around, all six candidates are still in the race. The German Thomas Bach is widely seen as the favorite — and his first-round victory certainly is the most likely outcome. However, he would be ill-advised to solely rely on the support of the notorious Sheikh Ahmad Al-Sabah. Remember the likes of Alejandro Blanco and Marius Vizer — and better be on guard.

Members of Bach’s entourage expect at least 42 votes in the first round — the majority is expected to be 47 or 48 votes depending on the number of members attending the session (unfortunately, IOC’s so called communications department does not provide any proper information) and being allowed to vote in the first round (members coming from candidate’s countries can not vote as long as the candidates are in the race).

The presidential candidates Ching-Kuo Wu (Taiwan) and Denis Oswald (Switzerland) are believed to be the weakest contenders. Likewise the task has become much more difficult for Ser Miang Ng (Singapore) since Tokyo were awarded the 2020 Games as Asia is very unlikely to get two „gold medals“ at the same IOC session. So, could the Puerto-Rican Richard Carrión benefit from the situation? Or maybe Sergey Bubka from the Ukraine?

There is one thing for sure — the more rounds it takes the more dangerous the scenario gets for the favorite, Thomas Bach.

But who are Mr. Bach’s supporters? The following forecast is based on interviews with IOC members, IF presidents, longtime observers of the olympic movement as well as journalistic research.

Information and projection is supplied without liability!

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